It is almost time for the Daytona 500! I am pumped and wanted to get these Daytona futures out early to those who are as excited as I am for the season to start.
Now, there are a few disclaimers when betting Daytona:
-Due to the volatility of this race (large wrecks taking people out), nobody is a “lock”, everyone is technically in play
-Due to the volatility of this race, these bets are largely for fun, and to make the race more exciting to watch
While I understand how hard it is to land a winner at such a difficult race to predict, I am going to do my best to figure out where the winners are coming from, and I will take you along for the ride.
MY PLAN
First and foremost, I am going to come up with a plan of how much I am willing to risk, and what type of reward I am looking for. As I said, Daytona is an extremely volatile race, but one that I thoroughly enjoy watching, and one I want to bet on to further enjoy that experience. In a race like this, my strategy will be much different than on tracks where I am confident in a few drivers to win, or when we have much more data and can project things more accurately.
For me, I am going to bet 10 drivers, at .2 units each, for a total of 2 units. Therefore, I want my return on any bet to be over 3 units, so I am up at least 1 unit if one of my drivers wins. If they do not, I am comfortable losing 2 units. Again, and I never mean to sound “preachy”, but do not bet what you cannot afford to lose.
With this strategy in mind, it is time to narrow down the field, using the best logical reasoning I can find for such a volatile race. Let’s ride.
MY STRATEGY
Daytona is a superspeedway, which is known in the DFS community as a place to “stack the back”. I will dive into that much deeper in the DraftKings article released Daytona weekend, but when we are looking for winners, I do not necessarily want to do this. The winners at Daytona have started 1-20 in 32 of the last 40 races. In 24 of those 32 times, the winner started 1-10. That’s 80% of the winners over the last 40 races starting inside the top 20, and 60% of the winners starting 1-10.
With practice and qualifying back, I am going to look at who has qualified 1-20 at Daytona recently. I have pulled the data from 2018 until now and this is what I came up with, featuring only those drivers who have odds to win on DraftKings Sportsbook (<-Most Recent to 2018->):
I HAVE FOUND MUCH BETTER ODDS ON THESE DRIVERS ELSEWHERE! I HAVE INCLUDED WHERE THE BEST NUMBERS ARE FOR EACH DRIVER. ALWAYS SHOP AROUND BEFORE YOU FINALIZE!
MY BETS
Utilizing My Plan (see above), I am immediately crossing off Hamlin through Logano, as I want to make at least 3 units back if my driver wins.
Once we enter the drivers that can return what I am looking for, we have a group of 3, all with the same odds, who have all qualified inside the top-20 in every race I pulled. With these drivers winning 80% of the time over the last 40 at Daytona, I want to take a deeper dive into each and see if they can make the list (Jericho fans, unite).
Alex Bowman +2000 FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK – Bowman has 11 Cup races at Daytona and has survived 10 of them. That is an incredible feat, so perhaps he is due to wreck out, but if he can somehow survive again and get a push/make a move at the right time, perhaps he can pull this off. He has two, top-10 finishes over his last 3 races at Daytona, and Bowman was 8th in my True Performance Ranks at superspeedways last year. When you combine all of this with how well he qualifies inside the top-10 here, and drivers starting 1-10 have won 60% of the last 40 races at Daytona, I am confident enough in him.
Kevin Harvick +2000 FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK – The seasoned vet has 41 Cup races at Daytona, including multiple wins here with RCR. Since coming to Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, he has not won at Daytona, but has finished top-5 in about 1/3 of the 16 races here. He has been close, and overall has only wrecked out of 8 of his 41 tries here. That is an awesome finishing percentage considering the carnage that occurs at Daytona. I would expect and hope for him to qualify inside the top-20 as usual, and if he can use those survival skills he has shown here, perhaps this is the year he gets another Daytona victory. Harvick ranked 7th in my True Performance Ranks at superspeedways last year.
Kyle Busch +1800 FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK – He is a man with many nicknames: “Rowdy”, “Wild Thing”, “The Candyman”, and my personal favorite, KFB (Kyle F*ck*ng Busch). Perhaps some of these make sense here at Daytona, where he has only finished 1/3 of his 33 races here. Now, some of this may be due to his aggressive style, but most, in my opinion, have been some dumb/bad luck. KFB has only won once here at Daytona, his first season with JGR back in 2008, but I think he might be due. Only his teammate Hamlin (atop the betting odds for this race) has a better driver rating at Daytona over their last 6 races here, and Kyle ranked 5th in my True Performance Rank on superspeedways last year. If he can time his moves right, he has the skill to jump in front of a line and propel himself to the front or hold off each side should he have the lead on the final lap. I am hoping for and expecting a big year from the #18.
As we move further down the list, there is only one other driver who has qualified inside the top-20 in sample I pulled.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2800 FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK – Ricky knows how to maneuver on these tracks. He has only wrecked out in 3 of his 19 races and won here in 2017. He has a knack for making runs up to the front and his aggressive style is what could give him the final push to win, should he survive until the end. He only ranked 19th in my True Performance Ranks at superspeedways last year, but he has the 8th best driver rating at Daytona over their last 6 races. The driving has been much better than the results, which is the case for many at Daytona. I like Ricky and his dual-sponsored car to perform well.
Let’s stick inside this, +1800 to +2500 area, as we have some other drivers who have been great at qualifying and racing at Daytona.
Austin Dillon +3000 CAESERS SPORTSBOOK – The driver of the #3, who I refer to often as “AD3”, is awesome at Daytona. He has finished 14 of his 17 races here and won back in 2018. He has the 9th best driver rating at Daytona over the last 6 races and ranked 3rd in my True Performance Ranks at superspeedways last year. With top-10 finishes in almost half his races at Daytona, AD3 has the skill to propel himself to the front at the right time and take this thing home.
Christopher Bell +3200 FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK – Bell has qualified inside the top-10 in both runs pulled in this sample. You will notice Jones also qualified inside the top-20 often with this #20 car as well. Bell is top-10 in driver rating during his 4 Cup races at Daytona and was awesome here during his Xfinity Series years, finishing top-10 in 4-straight before leaving for the Cup Series. With the 4th best True Performance Rank on superspeedways last year, I think Bell has what it takes to get the victory at Daytona.
Austin Cindric +3000 CAESERS SPORTSBOOK – Cindric made his Daytona Cup debut last year and raced the hell out of the Penske #33. He is now taking over Keselowski’s #2 car for Penske and I believe he is going to have a big year. Cindric started in the rear last February, worked his way all the way to front, and finished 15th as he was involved in a wreck at the end of the race. If you look at his qualifying times and how Keselowski qualified here in the #2, there could be a good shot he is starting top-20 for the 500. He has 1 win in his 8 Xfinity Daytona races, and with his Cup debut here last year I am not worried about his experience on this track.
That’s 7 drivers so far, all between +1800 to +2500, but now I want to look further than +2500 for my final 3 selections.
Justin Haley +6000 CAESERS SPORTSBOOK – No, this is not because he won a rain shortened Daytona race. This is because he has dominated at superspeedways, with 2 wins at Daytona and 2 wins at Talladega in the Xfinity Series, since 2019. Haley has done this in a Kaulig ride, and now gets to race a Kaulig car full time in the Cup Series. He was able to win in a Spire car, and although that was a shortened race, he was up front and running well. He also started 28th in a Spire car here last year and drove that to a 6th place finish. His overall track record at superspeedways and the upgraded ride are enough for me to be on him here.
Chase Briscoe +6000 CAESERS SPORTSBOOK – I love how Briscoe powered his way through his rookie year, always putting up a good fight, for a team that seemed as if they were looking forward to this next gen car a bit early. Much like his entire season, Briscoe showed improvement from his debut at Daytona to when they raced again in the Summer. In Xfinity, Briscoe ended his run in the #98 with back-to-back top-5 finishes, leading laps in both races. The talent is there, but I love the heart in this driver. Beyond that, I am expecting a bounce-back year from Stewart-Haas Racing, and Briscoe can be a big part of their success. The aggressiveness he was not afraid to display towards the end of last season could play in his favor, should it not create an early exit for this team.
Ty Dillon +11000 FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK – AD3’s little brother, Ty, is no stranger to good performances at superspeedways. We have made quite a bit of money from Ty in DFS on superspeedways, and now he gets to race this Petty GMS Chevy, which I project as a big upgrade over the #13 Germain Racing car we saw him in for 8-straight Daytona Cup races. The last 3 Cup races where Ty avoided carnage, he finished 6, 6, and 4. He had a ton of experience on this track, with 10 Cup races and 10 Xfinity races. Although he has never won, he has been close, and if he finds himself in that position with what I think is an upgraded ride, one final push to the top could get him there.
So, there are the 10 bets I have locked and loaded for the 2022 Daytona 500:
Total of 2 units spent, and the least I can be up if one of these drivers wins will be 1.8 units. At worst, I lose 2 units, and enjoyed my whiskey.
I liked having 5 Chevys, 3 Fords and 2 Toyotas. This race has seen some manufacturers work together in the past, pushing each other to the front at advantageous times. I wanted to include each manufacturer to hopefully better my chances that one of my drivers could benefit from that situation should it occur. I did not look at this until after I wrote everything and found bets I liked, and I am glad it turned out the way it did.
While I am watching practice & qualifying, if I see someone with some longer odds that I like (let me think of who I didn’t bet at longer odds but could have: Buescher/Burton/Custer/Jones/LaJoie) go out and look awesome, I have some room to put .1 units on them and still profit if one of my drivers at 18/1 wins.
Again, this style of betting is not the norm, but at a race as volatile as this one, I just want some action and want to put myself in a position to profit at the end of the race. I’ll be rooting hard for those longer shots to come in, and of course whoever I am rostering in DFS.
WELCOME, JAMES (JIMBOW)!
Speaking of DFS, it is going to be a huge year for NASCAR at Gup’s Corner. Starting this year, we will be taking the same winning approach we have used for the Cup Series, to the Xfinity and Truck Series! Welcome to the team, James (Jimbow, as our members know him in our NASCAR Slack channel)! If you have been in Slack or scrolled up on any Xfinity or Trucks leaderboard on DraftKings, you are already familiar with Jimbow’s success. James and I will be working together to make sure you have the best, useful information to profit in your NASCAR leagues, betting, and DFS. More information on what you can expect to see this year soon…
I cannot wait for everyone to see the big green G at the top of the leaderboards again this season!
Thank you for taking the time to read this. I appreciate you all, and good luck!