Gup's Corner

2022 CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES

Posted on Dec 29, 2021 by Ryan Stevens

Listen, I know I am early on this, but I cannot wait for the 2022 NASCAR season to start! We have a star-studded roster in the Cup Series for 2022, including some new teams, drivers, cars, and horsepower packages. One thing that will remain constant here at Gup’s Corner, is that I will be updating my signature True Performance Ranks after every race, so we are up to date on how these drivers are truly performing each week. I have also put in some hard work behind the scenes to firm up DraftKings projections for each track on the schedule. Once I combine these numbers with my TPR (True Performance Ranks) and their projected speed from their weekend practice/qualifying numbers, I am confident we will have the most accurate projections in the industry. I can assure you; I am working crazy hard to make sure that we are in for another profitable season of NASCAR here at Gup’s Corner.

CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES

My first step in placing some future Championship bets would be the rank the entire field. These ranks are comprised of the 2021 True Performance of these teams/drivers, their new teams/cars they are driving, the 2022 schedule, and how I think these teams/drivers will respond to the return of practice/qualifying. Only 16 drivers will make the playoffs, so here is how I project the top 16 as of now...

MY EARLY PLAYOFF FAVORITES

  1. Kyle Larson – Hendrick
  2. Danny Hamlin – JGR
  3. William Byron – Hendrick
  4. Chase Elliott – Hendrick
  5. Martin Truex Jr. – JGR
  6. Kevin Harvick – SHR
  7. Ryan Blaney – Penske
  8. Kyle Busch – JGR
  9. Joey Logano – Penske
  10. Alex Bowman – Hendrick
  11. Tyler Reddick – RCR
  12. Austin Cindric – Penske
  13. Christopher Bell – JGR
  14. Brad Keselowski – RFK
  15. Kurt Busch – 23XI
  16. Austin Dillon – RCR

I know we could see more parity this year with the new car, and we could see a lucky superspeedway winner enter the playoffs like last year, but I would not bet those drivers to win the Championship anyways, so they have been excluded.

Next, I am going to look at the Playoff Schedule and how these drivers have performed at these tracks recently. I want to try and eliminate drivers as a future Championship bet, just as I feel they could get eliminated from the playoffs.

Round of 16 – Darlington/Kansas/Bristol – TPR

  1. Kyle Larson – Hendrick – 2, 1, 2, 1, 1 – safe from elimination
  2. Danny Hamlin – JGR – 3, 2, 4, 6, 3, - safe from elimination
  3. William Byron – Hendrick – 4, 18, 7, 2, 5 – safe from elimination
  4. Chase Elliott – Hendrick – 11, 9, 6, 3, 7 – safe from elimination
  5. Martin Truex Jr. – JGR – 1, 7, 10, 7, 10 – safe from elimination
  6. Kevin Harvick – SHR – 8, 5, 5, 4, 2 – safe from elimination
  7. Ryan Blaney – Penske – 7, 8, 8, 15, 4 – safe from elimination
  8. Kyle Busch – JGR – 5, 16, 1, 27, 9 – should be safe, volatile, but like better w/practice & qualifying
  9. Joey Logano – Penske – 6, 6, 16, 9, 14 – should be safe
  10. Alex Bowman – Hendrick – 15, 28, 19, 10, 8 – could be eliminated
  11. Tyler Reddick – RCR – 9, 10, 9, 11, 15 – should be safe from elimination
  12. Austin Cindric – Penske – rookie wildcard, no road courses round 1 isn’t good
  13. Christopher Bell – JGR – 10, 12, 11, 8, 11 – should be safe from elimination
  14. Brad Keselowski – RFK – 23, 13, 3, 17, 6 – little dicey, but should be safe from elimination
  15. Kurt Busch – 23XI – 26, 3, 14, 5, 23 – could be eliminated
  16. Austin Dillon – RCR – 16, 19, 13, 14, 18 – could be eliminated

2021 Wins at these tracks:

Darlington 1 – Truex Jr.

Darlington 2 – Hamlin

Kansas 1 – Kyle Busch

Kansas 2 – Larson

Bristol – Larson

Four drivers will be eliminated, but for our sake of trying to keep some more betting numbers alive, I will only eliminate three from this round: Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, and Austin Dillon.

On to the Round of 12…

Round of 12 – Texas/Talladega/Charlotte Roval – TPR

  1. Kyle Larson – Hendrick – 1, 40, 30, 3 – safe from elimination
  2. Danny Hamlin – JGR – 6, 21, 17, 4 – safe from elimination
  3. William Byron – Hendrick – 2, 1, 18, 2 – safe from elimination
  4. Chase Elliott – Hendrick – 9, 25, 12, 12 – should be safe from elimination
  5. Martin Truex Jr. – JGR – 13, 18, 13, 21 – little dicey, but should be safe from elimination
  6. Kevin Harvick – SHR – 8, 14, 3, 10 – safe from elimination
  7. Ryan Blaney – Penske – 3, 13, 11, 7 – safe from elimination
  8. Kyle Busch – JGR – 5, 9, 22, 5 – safe from elimination
  9. Joey Logano – Penske – 7, 10, 4, 9 – safe from elimination
  10. Tyler Reddick – RCR – 4, 17, 26, 1 – should be safe from elimination
  11. Austin Cindric – Penske – good in Cup debut on superspeedway, great w/practice/qualifying road courses
  12. Christopher Bell – JGR – 11, 7, 6, 15 – little dicey, could need luck at Dega to be safe from elimination
  13. Brad Keselowski – RFK – 10, 2, 8, 18 – could be eliminated if he does not get lucky at Dega

2021 Wins at these tracks:

Texas – Larson

Talladega 1 – Keselowski

Talladega 2 – Wallace (not featured in this article)

Charlotte Roval - Larson

Four drivers will be eliminated, but for our sake of trying to keep some more betting numbers alive, I will only eliminate three from this round as well: Austin Cindric, Christopher Bell, and Brad Keselowski.

On to the Round of 8…

Round of 8 – Las Vegas/Homestead/Martinsville – TPR

  1. Kyle Larson – Hendrick – 1, 4, 4, 7, 9 – safe from elimination
  2. Danny Hamlin – JGR – 3, 1, 14, 1, 6 – safe from elimination
  3. William Byron – Hendrick – 5, 5, 1, 5, 4 – safe from elimination
  4. Chase Elliott – Hendrick – 11, 2, 15, 4, 4, 1 – should be safe from elimination
  5. Martin Truex Jr. – JGR – 6, 8, 3, 2, 3 – safe from elimination
  6. Kevin Harvick – SHR – 19, 9, 7, 13, 15 – will need some luck on his side, could be eliminated
  7. Ryan Blaney – Penske – 4, 6, 19, 3, 14 – will need some luck on his side, could be eliminated
  8. Kyle Busch – JGR – 8, 3, 17, 8, 7 – again, practice/qualifying back, like him more but could be eliminated
  9. Joey Logano – Penske – 10, 13, 11, 11, 12 – could be eliminated
  10. Tyler Reddick – RCR – 23, 7, 12, 10, 20 – could be eliminated

2021 Wins at these tracks:

Las Vegas 1 – Larson

Las Vegas 2 – Hamlin

Homestead – Byron

Martinsville 1 – Truex Jr.

Martinsville 2 – Bowman

Four drivers will be eliminated as we move down to the Championship Four, but for our sake of trying to hit some longer shots that could make a surprise run at a Championship, we will stop narrowing this list down now.

MY EARLY CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITES:

  1. Kyle Larson – Hendrick (+360)
  2. Danny Hamlin – JGR (+700)
  3. William Byron – Hendrick (+800)
  4. Chase Elliott – Hendrick (+500)
  5. Martin Truex Jr. – JGR (+900)

CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES PLAN

Without knowing exactly how these new cars will drive, how the teams/drivers will react to them, different strategies involved with practice & qualifying being back in the mix, pit crews dealing with all the new changes, etc., I want to make sure I get bets in that include most major teams. I say most because I am not going to include Hendrick’s on this card. I do not think Bowman can win, and I do not like the odds-on Larson, Elliott, or Byron. Hendrick’s has also won back-to-back Championships, and I feel like it is going to be hard to win the third consecutive Championship with all the new variables involved this season. Can Larson be the type of dominant driver that wins multiple titles consecutively? Sure, but we can make money on him this year as well. More on that soon. If the other teams can figure out just one little advantage that other teams cannot, they can hit the ground running and never look back. I am looking for longer shots now that could see their odds split in half by the time we get into the playoffs. As I just mentioned with Larson, and this goes for all the top-5 you see above: We have almost 30 weeks to win bets on these drivers before the playoffs, so you better believe we will be doing that also.

We will base this off 1 “unit”. A “unit” can be any amount you want. Easiest for most in increments of $10, $100, $1,000, etc. The betting method below is a conservative method. I cannot tell you how to bet, whether it be more conservative, risky, etc. The choice is yours. Whatever you do, please, do not bet money you cannot afford to lose.

I HAVE FOUND MUCH BETTER ODDS ON THESE DRIVERS ELSEWHERE! I HAVE INCLUDED WHERE THE BEST NUMBERS ARE FOR EACH DRIVER. ALWAYS SHOP AROUND BEFORE YOU FINALIZE!

PREVIOUS CHAMPS READY TO WIN AGAIN

Kyle Busch (2-time Champ) – JGR: +1000 as of now DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK; .2 units to win 2.2 – practice and qualifying are back! Larson and Rowdy are my favorite two drivers when you need a someone behind the wheel of a new car.

Joey Logano (1 Championship) – Penske: +1600 as of now CAESERS SPORTSBOOK; .2 units to win 3.4 – similar feel to Rowdy, as I like him more with practice and qualifying. The veteran presence when dealing with the new car and schedule is also encouraging.

Kevin Harvick (1 Championship) – SHR: +1500 as of now DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK; .2 units to win 3.2 – have a feeling he is not going to go out without a fight. Was incredibly strong at Phoenix last year and SHR has much to prove after embarrassing season.

Brad Keselowski (1 Championship) – RFK: +2800 as of now FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK; .2 units to win 5.6 – as much respect as he has for Penske, I think this future HOF driver wants to prove he can elevate his RFK team to the elite level. It starts with him. Just a gut feel, and I like the number.

MY FAVORITE LONGSHOTS

Tyler Reddick – RCR: +7600 as of now CAESERS SPORTSBOOK; .1 units to win 7.6 – RCR has made incredible strides as a team, along with Reddick as a driver. His hard work on road courses, and studying the game is paying off big.

I’ll start with a driver who I had going to the Round of 8, Tyler Reddick. Reddick is currently +3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and I think he has what it takes to take it to the next level. This #8 RCR car could flirt with a top-10 finish at every race in the Round of 16, more than enough to easily move him on to the Round of 12. The Round of 12 is where it really gets sweet, as he had a top-5 TPR at Texas last year, and the best TPR at Charlotte Roval when he finished 2nd there later in the season. If Reddick can get himself into position to win one of these races, or just do close to what he did last year and find some luck and not wreck out at Dega, he can advance into the Round of 8. If he does well at Texas and Roval, AND finds luck at Dega, he could be sitting pretty in the Round of 8, ready to knock off one of my top-5 and make his way into the Championship 4. The worry with this longshot would be his performance at Phoenix, as it has left a lot to be desired. He has been largely mediocre at Phoenix since moving up to Cup, with finishes of 33, 19, 29, and 19. Before that, while still with RCR, he was great in Xfinity in the desert. He finished 3rd in his last two races, losing to guys like Allgaier and Kyle Busch. Those were great performances. Perhaps with the new car, new horsepower package, practice, qualifying, etc., Reddick can shock the World and be the 2022 NASCAR Champion.

Austin Cindric – Penske: +7500 as of now FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK; .1 units to win 7.5 – the Rookie is surely a longshot to win a Championship, but 6 road courses in the regular season increase his chances of securing a spot in the playoffs.

Now, some of you NASCAR fans might think I am crazy and tell me a Rookie could never win the Championship, but my favorite longshot this year is Austin Cindric, who is currently +7000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Moving full time to the prominent #2 Penske team in the Cup Series, Cindric is so skilled at every type of track: superspeedways, road courses, most intermediate tracks, most short tracks – that I would be shocked if he tripped up and did not make it into the playoffs this year. I am not sure how well he will perform as a rookie Cup driver, in his first playoff race at Darlington, but heading to Kansas and Bristol could give him a good opportunity to make the Round of 12. We have seen Cindric lead over 100 laps at Kansas on multiple occasions in the Xfinity series, and he has led laps at Bristol his last few races there as well. With a few nice finishes, he could move on the Round of 12. The Round of 12 is where it can get shaken up quite a bit with a superspeedway race sandwiched between Texas and Charlotte Roval. Cindric has not dominated at Texas, but it has been one of his most consistent tracks in Xfinity and it would be hard to think he loses much ground there. What I like about Cindric is how he races at superspeedways. He raced Daytona in the Penske #33 last year, started 39th and was running up front, finishing stage 1 in 5th place. He ended up in a wreck and finished 15th, but that was one great performance from a young driver making his Cup superspeedway debut. He has been solid at both Daytona and Talladega in Xfinity as well, finishing in the top-10 in half of his races and winning at Daytona. I love these Penske Fords on superspeedways, and this #2 car won at Dega last year. Crew Chief Jeremy Bullins is back to work with Cindric and perhaps some of that same luck/strategy could pay off again. If some drivers ahead of him in the playoffs do not survive and he does, Cindric climbs up the ranks heading into what I feel is his best chance to win a playoff race, Charlotte Roval. Cindric was never able to secure the victory at Roval in Xfinity, but has Xfinity wins at Road America, Watkins Glen, Mid-Ohio, Indy Road Course, and Daytona Road Course. We also saw him excel at Road Courses in the Cup Series last year when practice and qualifying were used for the road courses. I think he can contend here and if he does get the win, he moves on to the Round of 8. The next round features all tracks where Cindric has led laps and finished top-5 multiple times in the Xfinity series. It might take some luck to sneak into the top 4, but if he can, his dominance at Phoenix is why I love this bet so much. Cindric has been dominant at the Xfinity Phoenix races, leading over 100 laps in both races last year, finishing 2nd and 1st. I know Cindric making it to the Championship 4 is a longshot, but the team is great, and the talent should be there. Nobody outside the Championship 4 has ever won the Championship race, and 70-1 would be an unreal price to have in that situation.

So, here are the 5 bets I have locked and loaded for the 2022 Championship:

SNUBBED?

You might disagree with my preseason top 16 ranking and that is fine, but please know there were a few drivers I hated leaving out.

  1. Aric Almirola – SHR: given his success in the higher horsepower packages last year, perhaps the move up to 670HP in most races this year will help him. His 550HP TPR was 28th and his 750HP TPR was 13th. Nobody had a larger discrepancy between the packages. I do expect somewhat of a bounce back season from Stewart-Haas Racing this year. I think streamlining the horsepower and packages more will help this veteran powerhouse team.
  2. Chase Briscoe – SHR: speaking of SHR taking a step back into relevance this year, Briscoe is next up on my list of potential playoff snubs. Briscoe was much improved everywhere during the second half of last season, and his awesome road course racing could have him burning his tires at the end of one of those races soon. As I mentioned with Cindric, there are 6 road course races during the regular season. If Briscoe can do what we know he can on those courses and remain steady everywhere like he did in the second half of last season, he could sneak his way into the playoffs.
  3. Ross Chastain – Trackhouse: if you were with us last year you know we made a lot of money off Ross Chastain. I love this driver and I am hoping he can follow up such a great year with his new Trackhouse team. Chastain was similar-to Almirola, where we saw him excel more in the higher horsepower, but this also translated to great road course racing from Chastain as well. He has the talent to excel almost everywhere, I just hope the Trackhouse team can be more consistent than their rookie season last year.

I appreciate everyone who has taken the time to read this, and especially those who have been following my work over the last few years at Gup’s Corner. I will continue to work hard to make sure that we stay successful, and I hope you are having fun throughout. Finally, and please, do not bet money you cannot afford to lose.

I cannot wait for everyone to see the big green G at the top of the leaderboards again this season!

Announcements about enhancements to our racing product coming soon! Thank you all!

Terms & Conditions|Privacy Policy
© Gup's Corner