NASCAR – STP 500 DFS & OAD – 03.25.18

Happy Sunday race fans! It’s a crazy week with snow postponing the race this weekend. It’s a risk the series takes every year when they move back to the Midwest or the East coast in the spring. Fortunately the Cup was able to get both practices in Saturday before the weather moved in and we’re able to get an idea of how the cars were running. There’s still some uncertainty heading into the race Monday given the lack of track time and weather. There’s some value sticking out with the starting positions set so let’s dive into those.

DFS

Martin Truex Jr. $10,700: The 2017 series champion got his first win of the season last week and looked like the Truex of last year. He’s never won at Martinsville or a short track, so that’s one thing motivating the team this week. He’s on the pole this week and has shown speed in both practices that were able to be ran Saturday. One of the favorites this week.

Chase Elliott $9,900: Fool me once, shame on me… Chase is one of the drivers benefiting from a value standpoint with qualifying being canceled and he is starting 21st. Last week, Chase just didn’t have the speed or the car to compete and I was thrown off by that. I believe he’ll have a bounce back this week and starting mid pack, he should gain plenty of spots to get in the T10 and provide points.

AJ Allmendinger $6,400: With qualifying being canceled, AJ will start 25th and becomes a target of mine with place differential potential. With T10s in 3 of the L4 races at Martinsville, moving through half of the cars in front of him seems reasonable to me. It’s really hard for me to pass on him at this price given his recent stats.

Ty Dillon $5,600: Under $6,000, this is my pick for the most value. Only two career Cup starts at Martinsville results in a 22nd and a 30th place finish. Career average finish of 25 on shorts tracks. Biggest concern would be making sure he gets speed early in the race to avoid being lapped and hurting his value quickly.

Bump & Run One & Done

I took a hit with Chase Elliott last week in two of my three entries. It’s a long season but it’s important to make sure those top drivers produce points to put the entry in a good position. If you’ve had similar results with a top driver, make sure you’re using drivers at tracks that they have good history at. It puts them in the best position to give you good results. If you have Brad Keselowski or Kyle Busch left and you’re looking for a top driver, then those are the two you should look at. If you’re looking for a ‘sleeper’ or mid pack driver to use, I mentioned Austin Dillon in my race preview. He has had decent success at Martinsville and I don’t expect him to be high owned in the OAD. With a decent result, he can give you an advantage going forward with his points.

I’m ready for some Monday racing and we’re going to get it. Hopefully it’ll get us through the first day of the work week. Make sure you apologize to all of your bosses for lack of productivity tomorrow. Let’s go racin!

@TheRealJoshG