NASCAR – First Data 500 DFS – 10.27.18

Made

Kyle Busch $11,900: Kyle looks poised for a championship run and these final four races set up for him really well. Martinsville is a track he has a great record at and he will start on the pole for Sunday’s race. He hasn’t finished outside of the T5 in the L6 races here. He also has two wins, including this race last year. In the L5 races he has led over 800 laps. It’s hard to envision him not contending for the win and while starting on the pole, he could easily jump out front and give the field the task of chasing him all day. 

Trade

William Byron $6,400 to AJ Allmendinger $6,200: Was hoping to get AJ starting in the 20s but maybe the SP17 will keep his ownership lower. Before finishing 40th last year, Dinger has rolled off 4 straight finishes in the T11. He rebounded in the spring with an 8th place finish. Only one Cup race here for Byron with a 20th place finish. Give me the $200 cheaper, more reliable, and proven at Martinsville driver. 

Fade

Clint Bowyer $9,800: Fading the latest winner at the track is a risky move. But I’m willing to make it here. He’s finished 1, 3, and 7 in the L3 at Martinsville so I cant give track results as my reasoning and I won’t blame you for some usage. From my Made prediction above, I think this will be Kyle Busch’s race. I don’t see that Bowyer, starting 2nd, will do enough to return value at $9,800. Bowyer could be a factor but I can also see Bowyer finishing 6th and not leading any laps. This is enough for me to fade him.