NASCAR – Consumer’s Energy 400 DFS Preview – 08.11.18

Welcome back race fans! A little pressed for time today and wanted to get this out as early as possible for everyone. Won’t BS this week and we’ll get right into Made, Fade, & Trade with @SDBoyle and my picks.

Made

@SDBoyle1: Erik Jones $8,000: Going a little down the board this week. I believe the majority of players will flock to Daniel Suarez given his starting position (40th) and place differential potential. I probably won’t full fade Suarez, but Jones makes for a very nice pivot here. The #20 was tops in the second practice and had the #1 overall ten lap average in Happy Hour. I look for him to stay in the top 5 pretty much all afternoon and challenge for the win.

@TheRealJoshG: Kyle Larson $10,600: I’m expecting ownership to be spread out amongst the 5 guys priced over $10,000. Larson shouldn’t be overlooked because of his track history and value goes up even more by starting 17th. This isn’t a fade of the other guys at the top; I plan on having some Harvick, Busch, and Truex LUs. But Larson looks to have the most value because of his qualifying run so I’ll have more Larson than any of the other 3 and a large part of my core.

Fade

@SDBoyle1: Denny Hamlin $10,200 and Martin Truex Jr $11,700: Going with a double barrel fade this week. Hamlin will continue to make the fade list when he sits on the pole because I do not see him dominating the race. He made lead some laps, maybe even get a big enough lead to win the first stage but that’s it. I would peg him for a top 5 car (assuming the pit road problems don’t come up like they did again last week) but priced as the 5th highest driver I don’t believe he will return his value, in which makes him a fade for me this week. I’ll throw Truex in this as well this week because you have to fade someone at the top, and the 78 just doesn’t look like a dominate car from practice. I would much rather have Kyle Larson given his starting position, track record, etc. as Josh highlighted in his article earlier this week.

@TheRealJoshG: Austin Dillon $7,400: Up and down results by Dillon at Michigan. He has 3 T10s in his 12 career starts. He finished 14th here in June and I’d expect a similar mid pack finish this weekend. With his starting position of 5th, I don’t see him returning much value with the expected negative place differential. I’ll be fading Austin Sunday.

Trade

@SDBoyle1: Austin Dillon $7,400 to Paul Menard $7,200: This may be a popular trade, but Austin Dillon is an easy fade for me this week with his 5th place starting position. He was not that fast in either of that last 2 practices, but obviously found something in qualifying. In the spring race at Michigan, Paul Menard started 15th and finished 5th. This week he starts 14th, may we see a similar result? I sure think that is a strong possibility and will have him as a core driver for sure.

@TheRealJoshG: Ryan Newman $7,000 to Paul Menard $7,200: Newman has been decent at Michigan and finished 4th in this race last year. Former teammate Paul Menard had similar success while at RCR until bad visits all around in 2017 at Michigan (34th & 22nd). Very similar results here comes down to place differential. Menard will roll off 6th and I see him falling back a bit, finishing 10th-15th. Menard will start 14th and has the ability/equipment to contend for a T10. In June, Menard qualified 15th and finished 5th. A T5 would be an exceptional finish but a T10-12 is a solid run and return for his price.

There you go race fans! Hope everyone has a good weekend with plenty of green screens. If anyone has any questions, feel free to reach out to me or @SDBoyle1. GL!

@TheRealJoshG